Starmer's Allies Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Significant Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

Several members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.